Rays' Low Attendance- Are the Critics Wrong?

In a word, yes.

The typical reaction of the baseball pundits is to jump on the bandwagon of whatever link they have read recently. Sure, have a strong opinion, but at least look at the overall picture of the current situation, and at minimum find a comparison to base that opinion on.

The new hot topic in baseball is the rapid success of the Tampa Bay Rays. The media talking heads are heaping praise, and it is deserved. They are however, offering criticisms of the support (or lack of) that has followed this team. That too is also deserved, but with some reservation.

Attendance has been low given the circumstances of the Rays' fast start. But why?

There are several reasons for the lack of support, but these are not excuses. Just reality.

The core fan base

The franchise is now in it's eleventh season, and with one exception every single season being a last place finish. It's next to impossible to develop a fan base over a decade in which the season is over before May arrives.

Think about it, in the new millenium in Florida, nearly everyone is from somewhere else. A bad team locally, combined with a transient community having fan allegiances to other teams, does not grow a fan base with adults.

So that leaves the kids.

The Rays' are still in their first generation of developing the future fan base. It's when the current 12 year old child turns into a 28 year old paying adult that the true core expands.

That's if you are not winning. Field a good team, and the core base expands rapidly.

History

The Rays drew 2.5 million during their inaguaral season. The following year attendance fell to 1.5 million fans. Between then and now, attendance has generally been just over a million fans per year. People won't travel to see bad baseball.

Anywhere.

Ask the Cubs in the early 1980's. One of the greatest fan bases of die hard followers in all of baseball. The 1982-83 seasons produced bad teams drawing 1.2 and 1.4 million fans each year.

In 1984, the Cubs dazzled baseball and their fan base by winning 96 games and their division. Their attendance grew to 2.1 million, a 50% increase over 1983.

Or ask the Indians in the mid 1980's. Fielding a 60 win team in 1985 brought an amazingly low total attendance of 655,000. That preceded 734,00 for a 75 win team in 1984.

In 1986, the Indians showed a stunning 24 game improvement in the standings, and attendance doubled to 1.4 million. They failed to keep the momentum however by falling back into last place in 1987, losing 101 games. Attendance fell to 1.1 million.

Losing "sometimes" does not grow a fan base.

The Whites Sox in the mid and late 1990's were mired in mediocrity. Great tradition, a history of winning, a not too distant realm of success with a developed core fan base, were all present elements at that time. Attendance stayed at roughly 1.6 million during those years.

An 80 win team in 1999 was followed by a first place 95 win team in 2000. Attendance rose to just to 1.9 million for a quality baseball club.

Losing most of the time does not grow a fan base.

Proof? Maybe ask the Oakland Athletics of the late 1970's, a team coming off 5 straight division titles surrounding 3 straight World Series wins. Owner Charlie Finley gutted his championship team and turned them into a cellar dweller overnight. Total attendance bottomed out to 305,000 in 1979. That followed 526,000 and 485,000 the two previous seasons.

The Kansas City Royals have drawn between 1.3-1.6 million during the last four seasons. Their on field success was highlighted by a 69 victory season in 2007. Their overall record for the last 4 years is comparable to that of the Rays, as is their home attendance figures.

Coincidence? No.

Reality? Yes.

The Braves of the late 1980's were a bad baseball team, losing at or near a 100 games every year. Attendance struggled as well, drawing less than a million fans each season.

In 1991, the Braves shocked baseball winning 94 games and beginning a decade plus run at the top of the standings. Over 2.1 million fans came out to cheer this new dynasty in the making. The majority of those 2.1 million fans did not come out in April and May however.

It was the summer months that filled Fulton County Stadium to near capacity because the Braves were in a pennant race for the first time in years.

Pennant fever

This is the ultimate drawing card for a baseball team. It unifies the fan base with it's community.

In a pennant chase, every game with every team now matters. Baseball becomes part of the daily grind. The morning box score becomes as important as the front page news.

Tampa Bay has yet to experience this. It matters, and it matters big time.

Not an excuse, just reality.

Where does it go?

Despite the slow start in attendance this year, the Ray's are averaging 18,227 after 33 home games. In 2007, the Rays' drew 17,130 per game, but this included the summer months.

If the Rays average 26,000 in attendance per home game the rest of the season they will end up drawing 1.85 million, their highest total since the very first season in 1998. That would be a 50% improvement, and in line with other historical comparisons.

Two million in attendance is a reach, but not out of the question.

As the Rays' continue their march towards excellence, attendance issues will go away. School will soon be out, freeing up many families to make the trip to Tropicana Field. Adding the probability of a potential of a pennant race will drive many of the borderline fans to attend games en mass.

So yes, the critics have labeled the obvious point of attendance being low, but what they have not done is put the problem in it's rightful historical perspective.