Rays' Mid-Season Report

The 2008 season began with much promise for the Rays.

A strong start in the exhibition season led to expectations of the Rays' finishing with their first winning season ever. Not many had expected that carryover effect to be this long nor as this engaging.

Now, at the halfway point in the season, the Rays' record stands at 49-32, and proudly standing one half game up on the mighty Boston Red Sox. A decade full of management incompetence, bad luck, and bad baseball are quickly diminishing memories from the minds of most.

The Rays' are contenders.

Hell must have frozen over, gas is less than two bucks a gallon, and the Rays' are contenders.

In the AL East no less.

Consistency

The Rays' have yet to lose more than 3 games in a row. Much of this can be attributed to the rebuilt middle defense and the solid efforts of a complete pitching staff.

The Rays' have committed the fewest errors by any Major League team. The team ERA is 3.71, and the outstanding defense has much to do with keeping a young pitching staff both confident and efficient.

The bullpen has a mid season ERA of 3.19 while allowing opposing hitters just a paltry .211 batting average. The bullpen ERA is a three run per game improvement over 2007's dismal 6.16. Opposing hitters batted at a .303 clip last year as well.

Starting Pitching

This may be the most promising attribute of the Rays' as they continue their ascending path towards a playoff run. Balance, style of approach, and innings grinders lay the foundation for this pitching staff to continue to succeed through the summer months.

Matt Garza and Scott Kazmir have at times been electric and overpowering while combining for 13 wins despite both players spending a combined 6 weeks on the disabled list.

James Shields has been efficient and steady even without consistent run support. Edwin Jackson has been up and down, but his control is much improved over last year, and has been better in working out of big innings.

Andy Sonnastine is 9-3, and may be the weakest link in the starting rotation.


The Bullpen


The improvement can be best described on one word.

Dramatic.

Troy Percival and Dan Wheeler both have provided stability through performance in finishing games. The Rays' are 14-11 in one run games, and their consistency has played a major role. Percival has been successful in 19 of 21 save opportunities.


Others, like JP Howell (a converted starter), Trevor Miller, and Grant Balfour, have been clutch pitchers while serving in a variety of roles. The three run ERA improvement over 2007 speaks volumes as to the depth of the bullpen.


It's not just a couple of guys

Offensively, the Rays' punch has been coming from all through the lineup. Seemingly, it's a different player stepping up when needed in close games.

Gabe Gross, the part time right fielder, leads the way with three walk off game winning hits.

The three hitter, BJ Upton, has only 5 hr's, while the clean up hitter Carlos Pena has struggled to stay above .220 all year. Rookie Evan Longoria and Dionner Navarro have offset those deficiencies with consistent production. Navarro has hit above .300 all season and Longoria leads both the Rays and all AL rookies in hr's and rbi's with 15 and 47 respectively.

Eric Hinske and Carl Crawford have been steady as well and especially in the clutch.

Schedule

The Rays' played maybe the toughest schedule in all of baseball during the first half of the season. Prior to beginning the series with the Houston and Pittsburgh, the Rays' combined opponents winning percentage stood at .571.

Included in this were impressive sweeps of the Angels, Red Sox, and Cubs.

The Rays' have played an slightly unbalanced home and away schedule, but have been outstanding at either going 30-13 at home, and 19-19 on the road. Tropicana Field is gaining a reputation for being a difficult road venue.

Where does this journey end?

Health matters, along with experience.

But so does speed, defense and pitching.

Right now the Ray's have all but the experience.

The first half of 2008 has been magical for the Rays'. Seven walk off wins, dominating complete game shutouts, series sweeps against the best in baseball, stellar game saving defensive plays, have all made many believe that this is a team of destiny.

A serious playoff run is in the making, and watching this dynamic, aggressive team march on is the story of 2008.

The 2008 Tampa Bay Rays' are playoff bound. Mark it down.

You saw it here first.

The NBA is Fixed?

Fixed?

Not in the sense that the title may imply.

At least through the eyes of David Stern, "fixed" represents the marketing prowess that the NBA believes that it enjoys worldwide. There is no doubt that Stern has done this job well serving as the commissioner of league that has grown significantly in international popularity.

These days, you can find LeBron James jerseys in Paris, Yao jerseys in China, and countless other jerseys of NBA stars at points all over the world. Job well done, Mr. Commissioner.

All this frenzy from a league that as late as the 1970's still showed the NBA Finals broadcasts on tape delay.

Stern "fixed" the NBA by predominately having players marketed instead of teams. No longer was it the Sixers against the Lakers with Dr. J and Kareem. Instead it was Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls take on Karl Malone and the Utah Jazz.

Stern gave the NBA "star power" like it never had before. And "power" he gave.

Brilliant, some have said of Stern through the years.

With the current Tim Donaghy controversy at the forefront, and through all of Stern's marketing prowess, has he dropped the ball in the most basic fundamental of all, which is maintaining the integrity of the game?

"Fixed", is a word to many watching the NBA that has another meaning too.

For years now, and especially with the advent of the David Stern "star power", the NBA has faced the uncertainty of rules enforcement.

The obvious

While beginning a drive towards the basket, Allen Iverson receives a contact foul at the 3 point line against the Magic. Iverson finished his drive successfully, and was awarded a free throw due to the foul.

The problem in this instance was that Iverson never once dribbled the ball after the foul. He took four full steps from contact at the 3 point line to the finishing the shot without the ball once touching the floor.

So, how does the NBA defend this? Oh, that's right, it was a continuation. OK.....

We won't get into the John Stockton holds, the Shaq clear-out post ups or his camping in the lane, Iverson palming the ball, or the seemingly infinite other privileged rules interpretation that stars get from NBA referees.

When Shaq was in his prime, did the 3 second count only start when the opposing bench yells it to the referees?

You do not have to be a knowledgeable person to recognize inconsistencies during games.

The not so obvious

Calls get one sided at times, primarily due to more aggressiveness by one team over another.

Coaches will change the call frequency often during games. The angry coach gets a technical foul by baiting an official, then shortly thereafter the calls usually balance themselves out.


The make up call

Dwight Howard has solid position in the deep post, starts his drop step, is grabbed by his jersey and then gets hammered on the side of his head by Brendan Haywood. Howard misses the shot, the Wizards get the rebound and play continues.

No foul call.

Next time down, Howard receives the entry pass while stationery, Haywood is barely touching the Magic center, and the whistle blows.

Foul. OK....

The make up call happens far too often for any level of fan interest. Imagine an umpire in baseball calling the next runner out because he mistakenly called the previous runner safe.

Or a sideline judge in football calling the next pass complete because he erred on the previous play by ruling it incomplete.

Credibility

How can a league ever have credibility when make up calls are considered normal procedure but are an unwritten rule?

Of course, David Stern would deny this.

How can a league have credibility when stars play to different rules interpretations than other players? Just ask the players if this isn't the case.

The NBA would deny this as well. But the eyes of millions of observers do not believe the sincerity of the NBA's explanations.

Then there are the home court rules, the bad player rules, and of course, the superstar rules. It's no wonder that the NBA can't be consistent.

There are just too many rules to enforce.

Tim Donaghy

Now the NBA faces it's biggest dilemma since the cocaine crazed early 1980's.

Because of all of the different (albeit denied) rules standards given for various situations, the word "fixed" has appeared. The naysayers cry out that evidence is in hand, all you have to do is watch the tapes. Playoff tapes at that.

The hyped NBA Finals are near midstream, yet all discussions these days start with the name Tim Donaghy. Is it true, or isn't it? Donaghy is a crackpot liar, rat, and a gambler, or so the league defenders argue.

Or, can he be telling the truth? Donaghy has little to gain by perpetuating false claims to the FBI. Ask Martha Stewart how well that works out. He does have a lot more to lose if these accusations are a figment of his imagination.

Steering

The truth of Donaghy's claims probably lie somewhere in the middle of "he's a lying rat" to the NBA is "fixed".

It is obvious that games, players, and even situations are "steered" at times by officials.

Sometimes it's necessary (games can get very rough) for safety, sometimes it's done to right a wrong (which is still wrong), and maybe it's done to keep games close (tickets are expensive) and provide consistent fan enjoyment.

The fix

It's time for Stern to actually fix the game itself. The NBA is a great product, but is not a great game anymore. There are just too many obvious discrepancies for the game to stay mainstream with the sports fans.

At some point, accountability may be required from the public, or the NBA may just continue it's fall into the WWE mentality. What a loss of a beautiful sport.

Quit the cover ups, stop sidestepping bad performances by officials, and at minimum restore consistency with rules interpretations. This might mean losing some officials, but for the integrity of the game is probably worth it. Doing any or all of these might prevent a future Tim Donaghy from appearing.

It's your call Mr. Commissioner.

Rays select Tim Beckham with 1st pick

The Rays' selected shortstop Tim Beckham with the first pick in the MLB draft.

Infield depth will be greatly improved over the next few years.

Beckham should not have the potential signing difficulty that Buster Posey would have brought.

Expect Posey to fall as the draft progresses.

Rays' Low Attendance- Are the Critics Wrong?

In a word, yes.

The typical reaction of the baseball pundits is to jump on the bandwagon of whatever link they have read recently. Sure, have a strong opinion, but at least look at the overall picture of the current situation, and at minimum find a comparison to base that opinion on.

The new hot topic in baseball is the rapid success of the Tampa Bay Rays. The media talking heads are heaping praise, and it is deserved. They are however, offering criticisms of the support (or lack of) that has followed this team. That too is also deserved, but with some reservation.

Attendance has been low given the circumstances of the Rays' fast start. But why?

There are several reasons for the lack of support, but these are not excuses. Just reality.

The core fan base

The franchise is now in it's eleventh season, and with one exception every single season being a last place finish. It's next to impossible to develop a fan base over a decade in which the season is over before May arrives.

Think about it, in the new millenium in Florida, nearly everyone is from somewhere else. A bad team locally, combined with a transient community having fan allegiances to other teams, does not grow a fan base with adults.

So that leaves the kids.

The Rays' are still in their first generation of developing the future fan base. It's when the current 12 year old child turns into a 28 year old paying adult that the true core expands.

That's if you are not winning. Field a good team, and the core base expands rapidly.

History

The Rays drew 2.5 million during their inaguaral season. The following year attendance fell to 1.5 million fans. Between then and now, attendance has generally been just over a million fans per year. People won't travel to see bad baseball.

Anywhere.

Ask the Cubs in the early 1980's. One of the greatest fan bases of die hard followers in all of baseball. The 1982-83 seasons produced bad teams drawing 1.2 and 1.4 million fans each year.

In 1984, the Cubs dazzled baseball and their fan base by winning 96 games and their division. Their attendance grew to 2.1 million, a 50% increase over 1983.

Or ask the Indians in the mid 1980's. Fielding a 60 win team in 1985 brought an amazingly low total attendance of 655,000. That preceded 734,00 for a 75 win team in 1984.

In 1986, the Indians showed a stunning 24 game improvement in the standings, and attendance doubled to 1.4 million. They failed to keep the momentum however by falling back into last place in 1987, losing 101 games. Attendance fell to 1.1 million.

Losing "sometimes" does not grow a fan base.

The Whites Sox in the mid and late 1990's were mired in mediocrity. Great tradition, a history of winning, a not too distant realm of success with a developed core fan base, were all present elements at that time. Attendance stayed at roughly 1.6 million during those years.

An 80 win team in 1999 was followed by a first place 95 win team in 2000. Attendance rose to just to 1.9 million for a quality baseball club.

Losing most of the time does not grow a fan base.

Proof? Maybe ask the Oakland Athletics of the late 1970's, a team coming off 5 straight division titles surrounding 3 straight World Series wins. Owner Charlie Finley gutted his championship team and turned them into a cellar dweller overnight. Total attendance bottomed out to 305,000 in 1979. That followed 526,000 and 485,000 the two previous seasons.

The Kansas City Royals have drawn between 1.3-1.6 million during the last four seasons. Their on field success was highlighted by a 69 victory season in 2007. Their overall record for the last 4 years is comparable to that of the Rays, as is their home attendance figures.

Coincidence? No.

Reality? Yes.

The Braves of the late 1980's were a bad baseball team, losing at or near a 100 games every year. Attendance struggled as well, drawing less than a million fans each season.

In 1991, the Braves shocked baseball winning 94 games and beginning a decade plus run at the top of the standings. Over 2.1 million fans came out to cheer this new dynasty in the making. The majority of those 2.1 million fans did not come out in April and May however.

It was the summer months that filled Fulton County Stadium to near capacity because the Braves were in a pennant race for the first time in years.

Pennant fever

This is the ultimate drawing card for a baseball team. It unifies the fan base with it's community.

In a pennant chase, every game with every team now matters. Baseball becomes part of the daily grind. The morning box score becomes as important as the front page news.

Tampa Bay has yet to experience this. It matters, and it matters big time.

Not an excuse, just reality.

Where does it go?

Despite the slow start in attendance this year, the Ray's are averaging 18,227 after 33 home games. In 2007, the Rays' drew 17,130 per game, but this included the summer months.

If the Rays average 26,000 in attendance per home game the rest of the season they will end up drawing 1.85 million, their highest total since the very first season in 1998. That would be a 50% improvement, and in line with other historical comparisons.

Two million in attendance is a reach, but not out of the question.

As the Rays' continue their march towards excellence, attendance issues will go away. School will soon be out, freeing up many families to make the trip to Tropicana Field. Adding the probability of a potential of a pennant race will drive many of the borderline fans to attend games en mass.

So yes, the critics have labeled the obvious point of attendance being low, but what they have not done is put the problem in it's rightful historical perspective.